‘Be extremely subtle, even to the point of formlessness. Be extremely mysterious, even to the point of soundlessness. Thereby you can be the director of the opponent’s fate.’ – Sun Tzu
Israel's War Cabinet is discussing how they will respond to Iran's latest attack on Israeli military targets. Most of the missiles were taken out by the Israeli Iron Dome but some missiles reached their area in Israel with some damage. There has never been a question as to what Israel would do to respond but how, when, and where would Israel strike?
Joe Biden does not want to escalate the war. Biden keeps pushing for a ceasefire. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called on "all sides" to "show restraint," and several countries also urged against escalation. 1 This quote is dated, but the thought and impact on the US and Israel are the same.
Israel is going to retaliate and they are going to do some real damage to Iran. To do nothing invites more missile and drone attacks and perhaps even worse. The first question is what will Israel do?
My thoughts are as follows:
Israel might project a massive strike on Iran's nuclear sites. They have 500-pound bunker busters provided by the US in their stockpile of weapons. These bombs are smart-guided and can penetrate 50 feet of concrete. This would set back Iran's desire to dominate the Middle East and end Iran's projecting nuclear capability even as far as the U.S.
Iran's new $2 billion dollar oil refinery at Bandar-Abbas is expected to turn the country into an exporter of refined petroleum products and meet its own needs for such products. | Jamshid Bairami/AFP via Getty Images Joe Biden does not want Israel to strike the Iranian oil fields. However, this is a possible option for teaching the Mullahs a lesson. Curtailing Iranian oil production would cut off a major source of funds to the Iranian government and would do serious damage to the Iranian economy. By striking the source of financing Iran would be hard-pressed to fund their proxies in the war against Israel. In addition, nothing says, "Hell on Wheels" like a starving populace with no food or gasoline.
But even if Iran’s oil production is severely damaged, it would cut supplies by probably less than 2 million barrels per day, analysts said. That’s a relative drop in the bucket in a global market that consumes 100 million barrels daily, Douglas Rediker said. The United States or China could make up any supply shortfall with releases from their strategic petroleum reserves. 3.
3. Israel could strike military and infrastructure targets in Iran. This might include assassinations but probably would not involve the ruling class in Iran. I might add, that those responsible for all the killing and devastation in the Middle East would get a pass. Can you imagine Israel and Iran targeting their national leaders? I still would not put it passed Iran to try and take out Netanyahu. I think the Mullahs would regret that.
The most likely targets would be any site or unit associated with Iran’s missile assault on Israel this week, including command and control centers, missile launchpads, fueling sites and even commanders overseeing the country’s ballistic missile arsenal.
Israel also could go after intelligence centers, often located at military bases, in response to an apparent Iranian attempt to strike the headquarters of Israel’s Mossad spy agency Tuesday. 4.
IaIran’s air defenses are no match for Israel’s air force, analysts and former military officers Iranian air defenses are no match for Israel’s air force, analysts and former military officers say. 5.
Here is my take on this:
Israel has promised Joe Biden not to attack the oil or the nuclear facilities. I get this. The Biden Administration does not want retaliation but they know Israel will do something. The least objectionable response would be an attack on Iranian military installations. Keep in mind that there are Iranian advisors in the White House. Also remember that both Barack Obama and Joe Biden have sent huge amounts of cash to Iran, making them rich and enabling them to project the war against Israel and eventually against us in America.
Unfortunately, the Biden Administration leaked and they sent the entire Israeli strike plan to Iran. The Administration knows who sent the information but will not punish anyone. Biden never does. They promote the perpetrators to bigger and better positions in the Administration.
So what do I think? My take on this is that Israel is waiting to see who wins the election. If Kamala Hariss wins there will be a measured but strong retaliation on military targets. If Trump wins, there will be a massive strike on the nuclear capabilities of Iran that will set them back for a long time and perhaps permanently curtail Iran's ability to create nuclear weapons.
Resources
1 Landale, James, Edited by Molony, Marita, Israel begins to shape narrative on its response to Iran, BBC News, April 12, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-68737710
2. Lefebvre, Ben, Israel could bomb Iran’s oil. Energy markets are noting it but not panicking., POLITICO, 10/3/2024, https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/03/the-middle-east-tensions-are-hot-but-oil-markets-are-cool-00182273
3. Ibid
4. Dan De Luce, Courtney Kube, Monica Alba, and Abigail Williams, From missile batteries to oil refineries to nuclear labs, Israel could hit a wide range of targets in Iran, NBC News, October 3, 2024, https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/israel-targets-iran-missile-batteries-oil-refineries-nuclear-sites-rcna173865
5. Ibid
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