“Basically, after the ’74 elections, we organized a very, very significant kind of effort to convince first the candidates that they ought to be in Iowa because the national press was going to be here, and then to convince the national press that they should be in Iowa because the candidates were going to be here.” - Tom Whitney, the state Democratic chair from 1973 to 1977
The state caucus process is a Party affair. There are no state or federal machines, employees, or watchdogs to oversee the procedure. Charlie Szold said, "I think the caucuses are what democracies are built on."
A group of voters gather in a room, perhaps a high school gymnasium or a hotel ballroom, and separate into groups that favor a certain candidate. After selecting a spokesman they discuss the qualifications of their proposed candidate some of the participants move out to other groups seeking to convince some voters to switch over to their candidate group. These caucuses are held in communities all over the state. After an hour or two of this politicking, a vote is called for and winners and losers are tallied and announced. The media is on hand and eager to hit the airwaves with the outcomes.
The Iowa Caucuses are touted as a bellwether event however they do not always produce the desired result for the candidates. See the spreadsheet below compiled by Axios for some recent results. Fox News used this same information on Sunday, January 1 2024 to illustrate the caucuses do not always predict the eventual winner.
Iowa Caucus winners and eventual party presidential nominees
Highlighted if the candidate won both the Iowa Caucus and party nomination 1
Democrat Republican
Caucus Nominee Caucus Nominee
2000 | Al Gore | Al Gore | George W. Bush | George W. Bush |
2004 | John Kerry | John Kerry | No caucus | |
2008 | Barack Obama | Barack Obama | Mike Huckabee | John McCain |
2012 | No caucus | Rick Santorum | Mitt Romney | |
2016 | Hillary Clinton | Hillary Clinton | Ted Cruz | Donald Trump |
2020 | Pete Buttigieg | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Donald Trump |
It seems obvious for now that the two candidates will be Joe Biden and Donald Trump. We must assume that the two candidates will not be kept off the ballot by impeachment or convictions. The race for the Presidency may hinge on who will be the Vice President. This presents a problem for the Democrats and a more pleasant selection process for the Republicans. Donald Trump has told us on his Fox News Townhall that he has made his selection for Vice President, but that could be a topic for a future show. Even if Trump changes his mind on who he picks, the Republican bench is deep and rich with viable candidates for Vice President.
The Democrats are in a more complicated situation and the scenarios are swirling around the fact that Joe is not capable of holding the office of President. The sad business is that Kamala is not capable as well. The Democrats live in fear of not giving Kamal Harris her shot at President. The Party simply can not take a chance that blacks would vote for Trump or just not vote at all. It has been said, "That if Trump gets 18% of the black vote, he wins the presidency."
The Democrats do not have a great record for picking solid citizens for their elected or appointed offices. Have a look at some of their picks:
Kamala Harris, Vice President of the US. What has she done?
Karine Jean-Pierre, White House Press Secretary, nickname, "Binder"
Katanji Brown Jackson, Black female Justice on the Supreme Court. "What is a woman?"
Pete Buttigieg, Secretary of Transportation, Supply train problems, railroad disasters, spending too much time on maternity leave, mandating electric cars.
Lloyd Austin, Secretary of Defence, is AWOL when we are getting hammered in the Middle East.
Anthony Fauci, former NIAID Director. Masks, shelter in the home, close the schools and businesses. Tells a lie when the truth would be better for the country.
Merrick Garland, Attorney General of the US. He has thrown the statue of Lady Liberty into the waste basket.
Christofer Wray, Head of the FBI. Biden's personal police officer who knows all the secrets but does nothing for the good of the American citizen.
There are many more but I digress.
The caucuses are an example of how democracy works. The citizen voters gather in their local areas and discuss their needs, fears, and expectations. They try to convince other groups to join them for a majority that appeals to both factions and will be a win for all. It is a give-and-take bargain. There is no yelling or violence. Anyone who cares to make his or her voice heard gets their turn to speak. In the end, they tally the votes and the winner is the nominee that goes on the ballot. We designate these nominees to be our voice in the Republic.
The rest of us must use the Dominion voting machines and pray that there is no cheating. We also have the option of absentee ballots that if done properly are perfectly legal. The caucuses take more time and commitment. The voting machines just make us stand in line for a while. Which method do you think is better?
Resources
Rubin, April, Who won the last 20 years of Iowa caucuses, Axios, 1/13/2024, https://www.axios.com/2024/01/13/iowa-caucus-winner-history-presidential-nominee
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